NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate

Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller, Allan N. Weiss

NBER Working Paper No. 5078
Issued in April 1995
NBER Program(s):   AP

Evidence is shown, using US foreclosure data by state 1975-93, that periods of high default rates on home mortgages strongly tend to follow real estate price declines or interruptions in real estate price increase. The relation between price decline and foreclosure rates is modelled using a distributed lag. Using this model, holders of residential mortgage portfolios could hedge some of the risk of default by taking positions in futures or options markets for residential real estate prices, were such markets to be established.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w5078

Published: Journal of Housing Research, vol. 7, no. 2: 243-258 (1996).

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