Aging and Productivity, Rationality and Matching: Evidence from Economists

Economists' productivity, as measured by publication in leading journals, declines very sharply with age. Additional evidence shows that this is a rational response to economic incentives and/or changing physical or mental abilities: There is no difference by age in the probability that an article submitted to a leading journal will be accepted. The probability of acceptance does show increasing heterogeneity with age that is related to the author's quality, consistent with models of optimal investment in human capital and especially with occupational matching models.