TY - JOUR AU - Basu,Susanto TI - Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 4817 PY - 1994 Y2 - August 1994 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4817 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4817.pdf N1 - Author contact info: Susanto Basu Department of Economics Boston College 140 Commonwealth Avenue Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 Tel: 617/552-2182 Fax: 617/552-2308 E-Mail: susanto.basu@bc.edu AB - This paper presents an aggregate demand-driven model of business cycles that provides a new explanation for the procyclicality of productivity, and simultaneously predicts large welfare losses from monetary non-neutrality. The key features of the model are an input- output production structure, imperfect competition, countercyclical markups, and, for some results, state- dependent price rigidity. True technical efficiency is procyclical even though production takes place with constant returns, without technology shocks or technological externalities. The paper has observable implications that distinguish it empirically from related work. These implications are generally supported by data from U.S. manufacturing industries. ER -