TY  - JOUR
AU  - Cochrane,John H.
TI  - Shocks
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 4698
PY  - 1995
Y2  - December 1995
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4698
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4698.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
John H. Cochrane
Booth School of Business
University of Chicago
5807 S. Woodlawn
Chicago, IL  60637
Tel: 773/702-3059
Fax: 773/702-0458
E-Mail: john.cochrane@chicagobooth.edu
AB  - What are the shocks that drive economic fluctuations?  I examine technology and money shocks in some detail, and briefly review the evidence on oil price and credit shocks.  I conclude that none of these popular candidates accounts for the bulk of economic fluctuations.  I then examine whether 'consumption shocks,' news that agents see but we do not, can account for fluctuations.  I find that it may be possible to construct models with this feature, though it is more difficult than is commonly realized.  If this view is correct, we will forever remain ignorant of the fundamental causes of economic fluctuations.
ER  -