TY  - JOUR
AU  - Backus,David K.
TI  - The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 4553
PY  - 1993
Y2  - November 1993
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4553
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4553.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
David Backus
Stern School of Business
NYU
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
Tel: 212/998-0873
Fax: 212/995-4221
E-Mail: dbackus@stern.nyu.edu
AB  - I examine the evolution of the Japanese trade balance and its relation to the terms of trade and the value of the yen.  Using a vector time series model, I predict that the trade surplus will fall from a high of 3.7 percent of GNP in late 1992 to about 2.6 percent in 1995.  This relatively modest decline is an indication that relative prices are not the dominant factor influencing the Japanese trade balance.
ER  -