NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects

David K. Backus

NBER Working Paper No. 4553
Issued in November 1993
NBER Program(s):   IFM

I examine the evolution of the Japanese trade balance and its relation to the terms of trade and the value of the yen. Using a vector time series model, I predict that the trade surplus will fall from a high of 3.7 percent of GNP in late 1992 to about 2.6 percent in 1995. This relatively modest decline is an indication that relative prices are not the dominant factor influencing the Japanese trade balance.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w4553

Published: Japan and the World Economy 10, (1998): 409-420.

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