Realignment Risk and Currency Option Pricing in Target Zones
Bernard Dumas, L. Peter Jennergren, Bertil Naslund
This paper extends the Krugman target zone model by including a realignment mechanism. Various properties of that realignment mechanism are discussed. The movement of the exchange rate is governed both by a Wiener process on fundamental and by a Poisson jump process with endogenous realignment size. The realignment mechanism is such that (except in cases where a speculative attack occurs) no jump in fundamental is needed to accompany the jump in the exchange rate. A risk neutral valuation of currency options is constructed. Some properties of option values under realignment risk are illustrated by numerical results.
Published: European Economic Review, Vol. 39, (1995), pp. 1523-1566.