TY  - JOUR
AU  - Rosen,Sherwin
AU  - Murphy,Kevin M.
AU  - Scheinkman,Jose A.
TI  - Cattle Cycles
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 4403
PY  - 1993
Y2  - July 1993
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4403
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4403.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Sherwin Rosen
Department of Economics University of Chicago
1126 East 59th Street
Chicago, IL   60637
Tel: 312-702-8166

Kevin M. Murphy
Booth School of Business
The University of Chicago
5807 S. Woodlawn Ave.
Chicago, IL  60637
Tel: 773/702-7280
Fax: 773/834-3554
E-Mail: murphy@chicagoBooth.edu

Jose A. Scheinkman
Department of Economics
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ  08544-1021
Tel: 609/258-4020
Fax: 609/258-0771
E-Mail: joses@princeton.edu
AB  - U.S. beef cattle stocks are among the most periodic time-series in economics. A theory of cattle cycles is constructed, based upon rational breeding stock inventory decisions in the presence of gestation and maturation delays between production and consumption. The low fertility rates of cows and substantial lags between fertility and consumption decisions cause the demographic structure of the herd to respond cyclically to exogenous shocks in demand for beef and in production costs. Known biotechnology of cattle demographics imply sharp numerical benchmarks for the dynamic system that describes the evolution of cattle stock and beef consumption. These compare very closely to structural econometric time-series estimates over the 1875-1990 period and prove that systematic cattle cycles have a wholly rational explanation.
ER  -