TY  - JOUR
AU  - Lindberg,Hans
AU  - Svensson,Lars E.O.
AU  - Soderlind,Paul
TI  - Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 3918
PY  - 1991
Y2  - November 1991
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3918
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3918.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Lars E.O. Svensson
Sveriges Riksbank
SE-103 37 Stockholm
SWEDEN
Tel: +46 8 787 0107
Fax: +46 8 21 0531
E-Mail: lars.svensson@iies.su.se

Paul Soderlind
University of St. Gallen
St. Gallen, Switzerland
E-Mail: Paul.Soderlind@unisg.ch
AB  - Devaluation expectations for the Swedish krona are estimated for the period 1982-1991 with several methods. First the "simplest test" is applied under either only the minimal assumption of "no positive minimum profit" or the additional assumption of uncovered interest parity. Then a more precise method suggested by Bertola and Svensson is used, in which expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, estimated in several ways, are subtracted from interest rate differentials. In addition the probability density of the time of devaluations is estimated. Finally, estimated devaluation expectations are to some extent explained by a few macrovariables and parliament elections.
ER  -