TY  - JOUR
AU  - Aizenman,Joshua
AU  - Marion,Nancy
TI  - Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 3848
PY  - 1991
Y2  - September 1991
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3848
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3848.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Joshua Aizenman
Department of Economics;  E2
1156 High St.
University of California, Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz, CA  95064
Tel: 831/459-4791
Fax: 831/459-5077
E-Mail: jaizen@ucsc.edu

Nancy Marion
Department of Economics
Dartmouth College
Hanover, NH  03755
E-Mail: Nancy.P.Marion@Dartmouth.EDU
AB  - This paper explores links between policy uncertainty and growth. It provides evidence on the correlation between policy uncertainty and per capita real GDP for 46 developing countries over the 1970-85 period. Cross-section regressions on growth suggest that after accounting for standard variables from the endogenous growth literature, policy uncertainty and growth are correlated. The importance of the correlation and even its sign depend on the particular policy and on the geographical region examined. One channel through which policy uncertainty may affect growth is the investment channel. Using an endogenous growth model where domestic investment is characterized by irreversibilities and policy fluctuates between a high and lowtax regime, we show that the gap between the two regimes and the persistence of a regime jointly determine the pattern of investment and growth. Policy uncertainty in the absence of persistence does not affect long run growth.
ER  -