TY  - JOUR
AU  - Chinn,Menzie
AU  - Frankel,Jeffrey
TI  - Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 3807
PY  - 1994
Y2  - December 1994
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3807
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3807.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Menzie D. Chinn
Dept. of Economics
University of Wisconsin
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Tel: 608/262-7397
Fax: 608/262-2033
E-Mail: mchinn@lafollette.wisc.edu

Jeffrey A. Frankel
Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University
79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: 617/496-3834
Fax: 617/496-5747
E-Mail: jeffrey_frankel@harvard.edu
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 1991-11-07
AB  - We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. Investors would be better off placing less weight on their forecasts or the forward rate, and more on the current spot rate.
ER  -