NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Expected Changes in the Workforce and Implications for Labor Markets

Phillip B. Levine, Olivia S. Mitchell

NBER Working Paper No. 3743
Issued in June 1991
NBER Program(s):   LS

This paper examines the likely effects of the aging of the baby boom on labor force attachment, unemployment, and wages. Labor market trends between now and 2020 are the focus of analysis, when the majority of the baby boom generation will confront its retirement decision. We begin by reviewing past labor force trends and discussing important limitations of existing projection methods. Key elements needed to project the consequences of the demographic shock facing the labor market are identified. The task of developing a fully specified economic model to examine the effect of the aging of the baby boom on the labor market is as yet incomplete. On the basis of the best available evidence, we suggest the following conclusions can be drawn: The trend towards earlier retirement will slow and perhaps reverse in the next few decades. Unemployment should fall among older workers and the aggregate full-employment unemployment rate should also decline as the baby boom ages. The aging of the baby boom will not depress wages substantially, either for older workers or for other demographic groups.

download in pdf format
   (498 K)

download in djvu format
   (315 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (498 K) or DjVu (315 K) (Download viewer) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w3743

Published: Levine, Philip B. and Olivia S. Mitchell. "Expected Changes in the Work- Force and Implications for Labor Markets." Demography and Retirement: The 21st Century. Edited by A. Rappaport and R. Scheiber. Pension Research Concil, Praeger, 1993, P. 73-96.

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Lazear w2802 Adjusting to an Aging Labor Force
Lee w14746 Technological Changes and Employment of Older Manufacturing Workers in Early Twentieth Century America
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us