NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility

Robert F. Engle, Victor K. Ng

NBER Working Paper No. 3681
Issued in April 1991
NBER Program(s):   ME

This paper introduces the News Impact Curve to measure how new information is incorporated into volatility estimates. A variety of new and existing ARCH models are compared and estimated with daily Japanese stock return data to determine the shape of the News Impact Curve. New diagnostic tests are presented which emphasize the asymmetry of the volatility response to news. A partially non-parametric ARCH model is introduced to allow the data to estimate this shape. A comparison of this model with the existing models suggests that the best models are one by Glosten Jaganathan and Runkle (GJR) and Nelson's EGARCE. Similar results hold on a pre-crash sample period but are less strong.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w3681

Published: Journal of Finance, 1993, vol. 48, issue 5, pages 1749-78 citation courtesy of

 
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