TY  - JOUR
AU  - Beaulieu,J. Joseph
AU  - Miron,Jeffrey A.
TI  - The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 3450
PY  - 1990
Y2  - September 1990
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3450
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3450.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Joseph Beaulieu
Division of Research & Statistics
The Federal Reserve Board, Mail Stop 82
20th and Constitution
Washington, DC  20551
Tel: 617/253-8712
E-Mail: no email available

Jeffrey A. Miron
Department of Economics
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: 781/856-0086
Fax: 617/495-8570
E-Mail: miron@fas.harvard.edu
AB  - This paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in monthly data for 2-digit industries, and we demonstrate the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle in manufacturing with respect to several key stylized facts about business cycles. The results are an important addition to those in Barsky and Miron (1989) because the monthly data for manufacturing display interesting seasonal fluctuations that are hidden in the quarterly data examined by Barsky and Miron. The most significant is a sharp slowdown in July followed by a significant rebound in August. We argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents.
ER  -