The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing
NBER Working Paper No. 3450
This paper examines the seasonal cycle in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in monthly data for 2-digit industries, and we demonstrate the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle in manufacturing with respect to several key stylized facts about business cycles. The results are an important addition to those in Barsky and Miron (1989) because the monthly data for manufacturing display interesting seasonal fluctuations that are hidden in the quarterly data examined by Barsky and Miron. The most significant is a sharp slowdown in July followed by a significant rebound in August. We argue that this event is not easily explained by technology or preference shifts but instead results from synergies across economic agents.
Published: Economics Letters, vol. 37, no. 2, p. 115-118 (October 1991).