Riding to Opportunity: Geographic and Household Effects from the Orphan Trains

Between 1854 and 1929, approximately 200,000 children were transported from East Coast cities to new homes in the American West, motivated by the theory that a change of geography and household environment can transform lives. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in child placements to evaluate both whether being sent West improved outcomes relative to remaining in New York institutions, and whether variation in destination and foster household characteristics affected later life success. Linking tens of thousands of ``orphan train'' riders and comparable non-relocated children to Census records through 1940, we find no systematic evidence that relocation itself improved adult economic outcomes. Among children sent West, substantial variation in county-level economic opportunities also did not predict adult success. In contrast, the individual foster household income predicts children's later incomes, with an estimated intergenerational elasticity of about 0.2.