This paper explains upward job mobility and observed patterns of
unemployment by skill as an economy recovers from a recession. Skilled
unemployment is due to rational waiting by workers looking for long-term jobs
when there is a "lock-in" effect. Lock-in occurs if the conditions in the
labor market when a worker first accepts a job have a persistent effect on
wages. Using longitudinal data, we provide empirical evidence of the cyclical
pattern of wages predicted by the theory and also of lock-in.
*Published:
George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen, 1990. "Waiting for work," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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