The U. S. market for homes appears riot to be efficient. A number of
information variables predict housing price changes and excess returns of
housing relative to debt over the succeeding year. Price changes observed
over one year tend to continue for one more year in the same direction.
Construction cost divided by price, the change in per capita real income,
the change in adult population are all positively related to price changes
or excess returns over the subsequent year.
The results are based on time-series cross section regressions with
quarterly data 1970-1 to 1987-3 and for cities Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and
San Francisco.
*Published:
AREUEA Journal, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 263-273, 1990
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