Commercial Rivalry as Seller Incidence Shifting: Non-parametric Accounting of the China Shock

Intense US-China commercial rivalry is quantified in this paper with novel non-parametric relative resistance sufficient statistics. The accounting method minimizes the demand specification error variance in revealed resistances. China's manufacturing seller incidence falls (seller price rises) 7.6% yearly as China's sales share quadruples over 2000-14. US seller incidence rises 4.1% yearly as US sales share halves. Domestic trade shares closely fit revealed relative resistances with trade elasticity equal to one. Industrial policy pays for itself in suggestive projections. A 10% rise in US 2014 sales share reduces seller incidence 6.0%, exports rise and net benefit is positive.