TY  - JOUR
AU  - Cutler,David M.
AU  - Poterba,James M.
AU  - Summers,Lawrence H.
TI  - Speculative Dynamics
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 3242
PY  - 1990
Y2  - January 1990
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3242
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3242.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
David M. Cutler
Department of Economics
Harvard University
1875 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA  02138
Tel: 617/496-5216
Fax: 617/496-8951
E-Mail: dcutler@harvard.edu

James M. Poterba
Department of Economics
MIT, E52-350
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA  02142-1347
Tel: 617/253-6673
Fax: 617/258-7804
E-Mail: poterba@nber.org

Lawrence H. Summers
Harvard Kennedy School of Government
79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: 617/495-9322
Fax: 617/495-0436
E-Mail: lhs@harvard.edu
AB  - This paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of a wide range of asset returns. It highlights three stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, returns tend to be negatively serially correlated over long horizons. Third, deviations of asset values from proxies for fundamental value have predictive power for returns. These patterns emerge repeatedly in our analyses of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, real estate, collectibles, and precious metals, and they appear too strong to be attributed only to small sample biases. The pervasive nature of these patterns suggests that they may be lie to inherent features of the speculative process, rather than to variation in risk factors which affect particular markets.
ER  -