NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Non-Neutrality of Inflation for International Capital Movements

Hans-Werner Sinn

NBER Working Paper No. 3219 (Also Reprint No. r1577)*
Issued in August 1991
NBER Program(s):   ITI    IFM

This paper studies the question of how unilateral changes in the rate of inflation affect the

international allocation of capital. Presenting a model that incorporates a transaction

motive for money holding and capital income taxation with historical cost accounting, it

counters the view that inflation will be neutral in a world of perfect foresight and costless

arbitrage: under mild conditions, domestic inflation will unambiguously induce a capital

export. The paper includes a discussion of the Fisher effect. The empirical observation of a

less than one-to--one translation of inflation into nominal interest rates is shown to be

compatible with the model, and in fact the capital export turns out to be stronger the

lower the degree of translation.

*Published: European Economic Review, Vol. 34, pp. 1-22, (1991).

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