NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Dynamic Relationship between Low Birthweight and Induced Abortion in New York City: An Aggregate Time-Series Analysis

Theodore Joyce, Michael Grossman

NBER Working Paper No. 3211 (Also Reprint No. r1534)*
Issued in February 1991
NBER Program(s):   HE

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We use a vector autorgression to examine the dynamic relationship between

the race-specific percentage of pregnancies terminated by induced abortion and

the race-specific percentage of low-birthweight births in New York City. With

monthly data beginning in 1972, we find that induced abortion explains low

birthweight for blacks, but not for whites. There is no evidence of feedback

from low birthweight to induced abortion. Simulations based on the model

reveal that an unanticipated decrease in the percentage of pregnancies

terminated by induced abortion results in an increase in the rate of low-birthweight

births among blacks. The findings suggest that restrictions on

legalized abortion in New York City would worsen birth outcomes among blacks.

*Published: Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 9, pp. 273-288, (1990).

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