NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884-1940

Christina Romer, Jeffrey A. Miron

NBER Working Paper No. 3172*
Issued in November 1989
NBER Program(s):   EFG    ME

The paper derives a new monthly index of industrial production for the

United States for 1884-1940. This index improves upon existing measures of

industrial production by excluding indirect proxies of industrial activity, by

only using component series that are consistent over time, and by not making

ad hoc adjustments to the data. Analysis of the new index shows that it has

more within-year volatility than conventional indexes, has relatively

unimportant seasonal fluctuations, and has cyclical turning points that are

grossly similar to but subtly different from existing series.

*Published: Journal of Economic History, Vol. 50, pp. 321-337, June 1990.

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