NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Demographics, Fiscal Policy, and U.S. Saving in the 1980s and Beyond

Alan J. Auerbach, Laurence J. Kotlikoff

NBER Working Paper No. 3150 (Also Reprint No. r1453)
Issued in October 1989
NBER Program(s):   PE   AG   EFG

This paper focuses on U.S. saving, demographics, and fiscal policy. We use data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys of the 1980s to consider the effect of demographic change on past and future U.S. saving rates. Our findings indicate that demographic change may significantly alter the U.S. rate of national saving and current account position over the next 50 years. The gradual aging of the population is predicted to lead to higher saving rates over the next three decades with declines in the rate of saving thereafter. Associated with these predicted saving rate changes is a predicted improvement in the U.S. current account position is the 1990s, with a very gradual deterioration during the subsequent decades. While demographics is a potentially very important factor in explaining saving, it does not appear to explain the drop in the U.S. saving rate in the 1980s. What happened to U.S. saving in the 1980s remains an intriguing puzzle.

download in pdf format
   (310 K)

email paper

The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health provides summaries of publications like this.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health by email.

This paper is available as PDF (310 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w3150

Published:

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Auerbach, Cai, and Kotlikoff w3404 U.S. Demographics and Saving: Predictions of Three Saving Models
Auerbach and Kotlikoff Demographics, Fiscal Policy, and U.S. Saving in the 1980s and Beyond
Kotlikoff, Smetters, and Walliser w8258 Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma
Autor and Duggan w12436 The Growth in the Social Security Disability Rolls: A Fiscal Crisis Unfolding
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us