NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Forecasting Aggregate Period Specific Birth Rates: The Time Series Properties of a Microdynamic Neoclassical Model of Fertility

James J. Heckman, James R. Walker

NBER Working Paper No. 3133
Issued in October 1989
NBER Program(s):Labor Studies

This article demonstrates the value of microdata for understanding the effect of wages on life cycle fertility dynamics. Conventional estimates of neoclassical economic fertility models obtained from linear aggregate time series regressions are widely criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted for serial correlation. Moreover, the forecasting power of these aggregative neoclassical models has been shown to be inferior when compared with conventional time series models that assign no role to wages. This article demonstrates, that when neoclassical models of fertility are estimated on microdata using methods that incorporate key demographic restrictions and when they are properly aggregated, they have considerable forecasting power.

download in pdf format
   (538 K)

email paper

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w3133

Published: Heckman, James J. and James R. Walker. "Forecasting Aggregate Period-Specific Birth Rates: The Time Series Properties Of A Microdynamic Neoclassical Model Of Fertility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1989, v84(408), 958-965.

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Dettling and Kearney w17485 House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby
Kearney and Levine w17964 Explaining Recent Trends in the U.S. Teen Birth Rate
Heckman t0107 Randomization and Social Policy Evaluation
Campbell and Shiller w2568 Interpreting Cointegrated Models
Riefier, Friday, Lichtenstein, and Riddle Statutory Framework of Control
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us