NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the Canadian General Election

James A. Brander

NBER Working Paper No. 3073
Issued in August 1989
NBER Program(s):   ME   ITI   IFM

This paper examines the relationship between the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) and election polls during the 1988 Canadian General Election campaign. Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the TSE, and secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were reacting to expectations concerning the effect of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA)? I find that the TSE was positively related to Conservative popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of TSE subindices does not offer additional support to an FTA based interpretation of events.

download in pdf format
   (255 K)

download in djvu format
   (207 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (255 K) or DjVu (207 K) (Download viewer) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w3073

Published: Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 24, No. 4, (November 1991).

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Alesina and Roubini w3478 Political Cycles in OECD Economies
Snowberg, Wolfers, and Zitzewitz w16949 How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies
Schwert w2798 Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?
Wolfers and Zitzewitz w10504 Prediction Markets
Wolfers and Zitzewitz w12060 Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us