NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the Canadian General Election

James A. Brander

NBER Working Paper No. 3073*
Issued in August 1989
NBER Program(s):   ME    ITI    IFM

This paper examines the relationship between the Toronto Stock Exchange

(TSE) and election polls during the 1988 Canadian General Election campaign.

Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the TSE, and

secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were

reacting to expectations concerning the effect of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade

Agreement (FTA)? I find that the TSE was positively related to Conservative

popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of TSE subindices

does not offer additional support to an FTA based interpretation of

events.

*Published: Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 24, No. 4, (November 1991).

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