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Christina D. Romer, David H. Romer
NBER Working Paper No. 2966 (Also Reprint No. r1353)*
Issued in February 1990
NBER Program(s): EFG
ME
---- Abstract -----
This paper uses the historical record to isolate episodes in which there were large monetary disturbances not caused by output fluctuations. It then tests whether these monetary changes have important real effects. The central part of the paper is a study of postwar U.S. monetary history. We identify six episodes in which the Federal Reserve in effect decided to attempt to create a recession to reduce inflation. We find that a shift to anti-inflationary policy led, on average, to a rise in the unemployment rate of two percentage points, and that this effect is highly statistically significant and robust to a variety of changes in specification. We reach three other major conclusions. First, the real effects of these monetary disturbances are highly persistent. Second, the six shocks that we identify account for a considerable fraction of postwar economic fluctuations. And third, evidence from the interwar era also suggests that monetary disturbances have large real effects.
*Published: Romer, Christina D. and David H. Romer. "Monetary Policy Matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, 1994, v34(1), 75-88.
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, edited by Olivier Jean Blanchard and Stanley Fischer, pp. 121-170. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1989.
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