Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs

We thank Pete Klenow, Giuseppe Moscarini, Matthew Shapiro, Andrei Shleifer, Stephen Terry, Michael Weber, Michael Woodford as well as seminar and conference participants at the ASSA meetings, the Becker Friedman Institute, Carlos III, the Chicago Fed, the Cleveland Fed, the Cowles summer macro conference, the CESifo Summer Institute in Venice, the EEA meetings, Emory, HEC Lausanne, Kiel, LMU Munich, the NBER Summer Institute, the New York Fed, Northwestern, Nuremberg, the Philadelphia Fed, the SED conference, the Spring Meeting of Young Economists, Stanford, and Vienna for helpful comments. We thank Simeon Häfele for excellent computational assistance, and the team of ifo’s Economics and Business Data Center for their outstanding support as well as provision of the data. Financial support by the Fritz Thyssen Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

• October 26, 2021