Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach
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NBER Working Paper No. 2835 (Also Reprint No. r1723)
Issued in June 1992
NBER Program(s): ITI IFM
Techniques of regulated Brownian motion are used to analyze the behavior of the exchange rate when official policy reaction functions are subject to future stochastic changes. We examine exchange-rate dynamics in alternative cases where the authorities promise (i) to confine a floating rate within a predetermined range and (ii) to peg the currency once it reaches a predetermined future level. Similarities between these and several related examples of regime switching are stressed
Published: Journal of International Economics, Vol. 31, pp. 203-229, (1991).
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