TY  - JOUR
AU  - Christiano,Lawrence J.
AU  - Eichenbaum,Martin
TI  - Is Theory Really Ahead of Measurement?  Current Real Business Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2700
PY  - 1988
Y2  - September 1988
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2700
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2700.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Lawrence Christiano
Department of Economics
Northwestern University
2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
Tel: 847/491-8231
Fax: 847/491-7001
E-Mail: l-christiano@northwestern.edu

Martin S. Eichenbaum
Department of Economics
Northwestern University
2003 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL  60208
Tel: 847/491-8232
Fax: 847/491-7001
E-Mail: eich@northwestern.edu
AB  - In the l93Os, Dunlop and Tarshis observed that the correlation between hours and wages is close to zero. This classic observation has become a litmus test by which macroeconomic models are judged. Existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically. Based on this result, we argue that technology shocks cannot be the sole impulse driving post-war U.S. business cycles. We modify prototypical real business cycle models by allowing government spending shocks to influence labor market dynamics in a way suggested by Aschauer (1985), Barro (1981, 1987) and Kormendi (1983), This modification can, in principle, bring the models into closer conformity with the data. While the empirical performance of the models is significantly improved, they still fail to account for the Dunlop-Tarshis observation. Accounting for that observation will require further advances in model development. Consequently, we conclude that theory is behind, not ahead of, business cycle measurement.
ER  -