TY  - JOUR
AU  - Balke,Nathan S.
AU  - Gordon,Robert J.
TI  - The Estimation of Prewar GNP:  Methodology and New Evidence
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2674
PY  - 1989
Y2  - June 1989
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2674
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2674.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Nathan Balke
Department of Economics
Southern Methodist University
Dallas, TX   75275
Tel: 214/644-5476
E-Mail: nbalke@mail.smu.edu

Robert J. Gordon
Department of Economics
Northwestern University
Evanston,  IL 60208-2600
Tel: 847/491-3616
Fax: 847/869-7343
E-Mail: rjg@northwestern.edu
AB  - The paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar GNP, taps previously unused data sources, and develops new estimates for the periods 1869-08 and 1869-28. Primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation, communications, and construction sectors, and estimates of the consumer price index. New measures of real GNP, nominal GNP, and the GNP deflator are developed. The new estimates of real GNP are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional Kuznets-Kendrick aeries but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others. The new estimates of the GNP deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than in the postwar period.
ER  -