TY  - JOUR
AU  - Romer,Christina D.
TI  - The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2639
PY  - 1988
Y2  - June 1988
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2639
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2639.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Christina D. Romer
Department of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
549 Evans Hall, #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720
Tel: 510/642-4317
Fax: 510/642-6615
E-Mail: cromer@econ.berkeley.edu
AB  - This paper argues that the collapse of stock prices in October 1929 generated temporary uncertainty about future income which caused consumers to forego purchases of durable and semidurable goods in late 1929 and much of 1930. Evidence that the stock market crash generated uncertainty is provided by the decline in confidence expressed by contemporary forecasters. Evidence that this uncertainty affected consumer behavior is provided by the fact that spending on consumer durables and semidurables declined immediately following the Great Crash and by the fact that there is a negative historical relationship between stock market variability and the production of consumer durables in the prewar era.
ER  -