NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Some Empirical Evidence on Hysteresis in Aggregate US Import Prices

Richard Baldwin

NBER Working Paper No. 2483
Issued in 1988
NBER Program(s):International Trade and Investment, International Finance and Macroeconomics

This paper empirically investigates the hypothesis that hysteresis has occurred in US aggregate non-oil import prices. We find strong evidence that a shift has occurred in the exchange rate pass-through relationship in the 1980~~ and that the nature of the shift is consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis. Results on two specific structural models of this phenomenon (the beachhead model and the bottleneck model) are less conclusive. The data broadly support both models, but neither by itself can provide a convincing accounting of all the evidence.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w2483

Published:

  • Baldwin, Richard E. "Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, 1988, v78(4), 773-785.
  • Gerlach, Stephan and Peter Petri (eds.) The Economics of the Dollar Cycle. MIT Press, 1990.

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