TY  - JOUR
AU  - Schmidt,Peter
AU  - Witte,Ann Dryden
TI  - Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2445
PY  - 1989
Y2  - February 1989
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2445
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2445.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Peter Schmidt
E-Mail: Peter.Schmidt@hs-bremen.de

Ann Dryden Witte
500 SE Mizner Blvd., # A904
Boca Raton, FL 33432
Tel: 561 361 4398
E-Mail: awitte@wellesley.edu
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 1988-01-01
AB  - In this paper we develop a survival time model in which the probability of eventual failure is less than one, and in which both the probability of eventual failure and the timing of failure depend (separately) on individual characteristics. We apply this model to data on the tiring of return to prison for a sample of prison releasees, and we use it to make predictions of whether or not individuals return to prison. Our predictions are more accurate than previous predictions of criminal recidivism. The model we develop has potential applications in economics: far example, it could tie used to model the probability of default and the timing of default on loans.
ER  -