TY  - JOUR
AU  - Romer,Christina D.
TI  - Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2440
PY  - 1987
Y2  - November 1987
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2440
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2440.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Christina D. Romer
Department of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
549 Evans Hall, #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720
Tel: 510/642-4317
Fax: 510/642-6615
E-Mail: cromer@econ.berkeley.edu
AB  - This paper uses simple time series techniques to analyze changes in the short-run behavior of 38 physical production series for 1889-1984. The main finding is that fluctuations in these output series in the periods 1889-1914 and 1947-1984 are very similar, while those in the period 1922- 1939 are anomalous. Relative to the prewar era, the postwar era exhibits only a slight damping of fluctuations and no increase in the persistence of short-run movements. At the same time, the correlation between the growth rates of the 38 goods is very low in both the prewar and postwar eras and has declined slightly over time.
ER  -