Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address

Robert E. Hall, Thomas J. Sargent

NBER Working Paper No. 24148
Issued in December 2017
NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics

The immediate effect of Friedman's 1968 AEA presidential address on the economics profession was the introduction of an adaptive term in the Phillips curve that shifted the curve, as Friedman proposed, based on expected inflation. Initial formulations suggested that the shift was less than point-for-point, but later thinking, based on the emerging idea of rational expectations, together with the experience of the 1970s, came to agree with Friedman that the shift was by the full amount. The profession also recognized that Friedman's point was deeper---real outcomes are invariant to the monetary policy rule, not just to the trend in inflation. The presidential address made an important contribution to the conduct of monetary policy around the world. It ushered in low and stable inflation rates in all advanced countries, and in many less advanced ones.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24148

Published: Robert E. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2018. "Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol 32(1), pages 121-134. citation courtesy of

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