NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor

NBER Working Paper No. 24112
Issued in December 2017
NBER Program(s):Asset Pricing, Development of the American Economy, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, International Finance and Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics

This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century. What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long-run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive dataset for all major asset classes, including—for the first time—total returns to the largest, but oft ignored, component of household wealth, housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new insights and puzzles.

You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery.

Access to NBER Papers

You are eligible for a free download if you are a subscriber, a corporate associate of the NBER, a journalist, an employee of the U.S. federal government with a ".GOV" domain name, or a resident of nearly any developing country or transition economy.

If you usually get free papers at work/university but do not at home, you can either connect to your work VPN or proxy (if any) or elect to have a link to the paper emailed to your work email address below. The email address must be connected to a subscribing college, university, or other subscribing institution. Gmail and other free email addresses will not have access.

E-mail:

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24112

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson w24001 Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics
Glaeser Introduction to "Agglomeration Economics"
Wolff w24085 Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1962 to 2016: Has Middle Class Wealth Recovered?
Pierce and Schott w24071 Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Plants
Allcott, Diamond, and Dubé w24094 The Geography of Poverty and Nutrition: Food Deserts and Food Choices Across the United States
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us