Household Formation and Home Ownership: The Impacts of Demographics andTaxes

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This paper summarizes the impact of economic, social and demographic variables on household formations and home ownership in the 1960-85 period and uses this knowledge to forecast household formations, and their split between owners and renters, through the year 2000. High and low growth forecasts are reported, both with and without enactment of the Tax Reform Act of 1986. The forecasts are compared with those of others. Net household formations are expected to be robust through 1990 (above 1 1/2 million per year), but to tail off sharply in the 1990s (down to 1 million by 2000). Home ownership should rise slightly in the 1990s.

Published: "Household Formation and Homeownership: Impacts of Demographic, Sociolog-ical, and Economic Factors." From Housing Finance Review, Vol. 7, No. 2,pp. 201-224, (Summer 1988).

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