NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Shock Restricted Structural Vector-Autoregressions

Sydney C. Ludvigson, Sai Ma, Serena Ng

NBER Working Paper No. 23225
Issued in March 2017
NBER Program(s):AP, EFG, ME

Identifying assumptions need to be imposed on autoregressive models before they can be used to analyze the dynamic effects of economically interesting shocks. Often, the assumptions are only rich enough to identify a set of solutions. This paper considers two types of restrictions on the structural shocks that can help reduce the number of plausible solutions. The first is imposed on the sign and magnitude of the shocks during unusual episodes in history. The second restricts the correlation between the shocks and components of variables external to the autoregressive model. These non-linear inequality constraints can be used in conjunction with zero and sign restrictions that are already widely used in the literature. The effectiveness of our constraints are illustrated using two applications of the oil market and Monte Carlo experiments calibrated to study the role of uncertainty shocks in economic fluctuations.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w23225

 
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