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Why Do Estimates of the EMU Effect On Trade Vary so Much?

Andrew K. Rose

NBER Working Paper No. 22678
Issued in September 2016
NBER Program(s):International Finance and Macroeconomics

Larger data sets, with more countries and a longer span of time, exhibit systematically larger effects of European monetary union on trade. I establish this stylized fact with meta-analysis and confirm it by estimating a plain-vanilla gravity model. I then explain this finding by examining systematic biases in “multilateral resistance to trade” manifest in time-varying country fixed effects; bias grows as the sample is truncated by dropping small poor countries.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22678

Published: Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February. citation courtesy of

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