NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Consumption

Robert E. Hall

NBER Working Paper No. 2265
Issued in May 1987
NBER Program(s):   EFG

Macroeconomic research on consumption has been influenced profoundly by rational expectations. First, rational expectations together with the hypothesis of constant expected real interest rates implies that consumption should evolve as a random walk. Much of the research of the past decade has been devoted to testing the random walk hypothesis and to explaining its failure. Three branches of the literature have developed. The first relies on the durability of consumption to explain deviations from the random walk property. The second invokes liquidity constraints which block consumers from the credit market transactions needed to make consumption follow a random walk when income fluctuates up and down. The third branch dispenses with the assumption that expected real interest rates are constant. It attempts to explain deviations from the random walk in terms of intertemporal substitution.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w2265

Published:

  • Modern Business Cycle Theory, Robert J. Barro, ed., Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA 1989
  • Hall, Robert E. "Potential Disruption From The Move To A Consumption Tax," American Economic Review, 1997, v87(2,May), 147-150.

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