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From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation: Focusing on Expectations and Liquidity Disarray Since WWII

Guillermo A. Calvo

NBER Working Paper No. 22535
Issued in August 2016
NBER Program(s):International Finance and Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics

The paper discusses policy relevant models, going from (1) chronic inflation in the 20th century after WWII, to (2) credit sudden stop episodes that got exacerbated in Developed Market economies after the 2008 Lehman crisis, and appear to be associated with chronic deflation. The discussion highlights the importance of expectations and liquidity, and warns about the risks of relegating liquidity to a secondary role, as has been the practice in mainstream macro models prior to the Great Recession.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22535

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