Differences in Quarterly Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an Application to News Shocks

Eric R. Sims

NBER Working Paper No. 22154
Issued in April 2016
NBER Program(s):EFG, ME

This paper documents large differences across vintages in the properties of the widely-used quarterly utilization-adjusted TFP series produced by Fernald (2014), who provides updated data each quarter on his website. The most recent vintage of the adjusted TFP series has correlations with earlier vintages of the series that are less than 0.6. Compared to earlier vintages, the most recent vintage of the adjusted TFP data is more weakly correlated with output and more strongly negatively correlated with hours worked. I revisit the empirical analysis from Barsky and Sims (2011), who use an earlier vintage of Fernald's adjusted TFP data to identify impulse responses to news shocks about future productivity in a structural VAR. The vintage of adjusted TFP data matters for their estimated impulse responses, and in some specifications the differences using the most recent vintage of the adjusted TFP data are qualitatively large in a way that is more favorable to theories of news-driven business cycles.

You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from ($5) for electronic delivery.

Access to NBER Papers

You are eligible for a free download if you are a subscriber, a corporate associate of the NBER, a journalist, an employee of the U.S. federal government with a ".GOV" domain name, or a resident of nearly any developing country or transition economy.

If you usually get free papers at work/university but do not at home, you can either connect to your work VPN or proxy (if any) or elect to have a link to the paper emailed to your work email address below. The email address must be connected to a subscribing college, university, or other subscribing institution. Gmail and other free email addresses will not have access.


Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22154

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
GarĂ­n, Lester, and Sims w22311 Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data
Dabla-Norris, Ji, Townsend, and Unsal w20821 Distinguishing Constraints on Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP, TFP, and Inequality
Eichengreen, Park, and Shin w21556 The Global Productivity Slump: Common and Country-Specific Factors
Drechsler, Savov, and Schnabl w22152 The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy
Cacciatore, Duval, Fiori, and Ghironi w22128 Market Reforms in the Time of Imbalance
NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us