NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates

Stefano Giglio, Bryan Kelly

NBER Working Paper No. 22045
Issued in February 2016
NBER Program(s):   AP

We document a form of excess volatility that is irreconcilable with standard models of prices, even after accounting for variation in discount rates. We compare prices of claims on the same cash flow stream but with different maturities. Standard models impose precise internal consistency conditions on the joint behavior of long and short maturity claims and these are strongly rejected in the data. In particular, long maturity prices are significantly more variable than justified by the behavior at short maturities. Our findings are pervasive. We reject internal consistency conditions in all term structures that we study, including equity options, currency options, credit default swaps, commodity futures, variance swaps, and inflation swaps.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22045

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