NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Sets of Models and Prices of Uncertainty

Lars P. Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent

NBER Working Paper No. 22000
Issued in February 2016
NBER Program(s):   AP

A decision maker constructs a convex set of nonnegative martingales to use as likelihood ratios that represent parametric alternatives to a baseline model and also non-parametric models statistically close to both the baseline model and the parametric alternatives. Max-min expected utility over that set gives rise to equilibrium prices of model uncertainty expressed as worst-case distortions to drifts in a representative investor's baseline model. We offer quantitative illustrations for baseline models of consumption dynamics that display long-run risk. We describe a set of parametric alternatives that generates countercyclical prices of uncertainty.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22000

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