NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch

NBER Working Paper No. 21958
Issued in February 2016
NBER Program(s):International Finance and Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w21958

Published: Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015," American Economic Review, vol 106(5), pages 574-580. citation courtesy of

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