Identification and Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Discrete Game

Patrick Bajari, Victor Chernozhukov, Han Hong, Denis Nekipelov

NBER Working Paper No. 21125
Issued in April 2015
NBER Program(s):Industrial Organization, Technical Working Papers

In this paper, we study the identification and estimation of a dynamic discrete game allowing for discrete or continuous state variables. We first provide a general nonparametric identification result under the imposition of an exclusion restriction on agent payoffs. Next we analyze large sample statistical properties of nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for the econometric dynamic game model. We also show how to achieve semiparametric efficiency of dynamic discrete choice models using a sieve based conditional moment framework. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate the finite sample properties of the dynamic game estimators. An empirical application to the dynamic demand of the potato chip market shows that this technique can provide a useful tool to distinguish long term demand from short term demand by heterogeneous consumers.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w21125

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