NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns

Francesco Bianchi

NBER Working Paper No. 21056
Issued in March 2015
NBER Program(s):   AP   EFG   ME

Similarities between the Great Depression and the Great Recession are documented with respect to the behavior of financial markets. A Great Depression regime is identified by using a Markov-switching VAR. The probability of this regime has remained close to zero for many decades, but spiked for a short period during the most recent financial crisis, the Great Recession. The Great Depression regime implies a collapse of the stock market, with small-growth stocks outperforming small-value stocks. This helps to explain the cross section of asset returns when risk is priced according to a version of the "Bad Beta, Good Beta" Intertemporal CAPM that allows for regime changes.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w21056

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