NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller

NBER Working Paper No. 2100 (Also Reprint No. r1173)
Issued in December 1986
NBER Program(s):   ME   EFG

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate real consumption data, and return variance data. The results yield a metric to judge the relative importance of real dividend growth, measured real discount rates and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-price ratio.

download in pdf format
   (308 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (308 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w2100

Published: Review of Financial Studies 1988, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 195-228, (1988). citation courtesy of

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Campbell and Shiller w2511 Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends
Campbell w3246 A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns
Campbell and Shiller w1885 Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
Campbell and Shiller t0067 The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: A Monte Carlo Study
Shiller w0456 Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us