NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale

Ray C. Fair, Matthew D. Shapiro, Kathryn M. Dominguez

NBER Working Paper No. 2095 (Also Reprint No. r1100)
Issued in December 1986
NBER Program(s):   EFG

Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long did it take contemporary economic forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? How long should it Have taken them to come to this realization? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harvard Economic Service and Yale's Irving Fisher during 1929 and the early 1930's. The data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters are subjected to modern statistical analysis to learn whether their verbal pronouncements were consistent with the data. We find that both the Harvard and Yale forecasters were systematically too optimistic, yet nothing in the data suggests that the optimism was unwarranted.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w2095

Published:

  • The American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No. 4, pp. 595-612, (September 1988).
  • Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September. citation courtesy of

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